The only economic measure that the Arroyo government is boasting about is the additional taxes it imposed on the Filipino people in the form of the RVAT. However, the RVAT did not have any impact other than increasing the people’s burden. The economy is now on the verge of another fiscal crisis that is much worse than in 2002, when Arroyo was forced to declare that she would not run for the presidency in 2004 to deflect moves to oust her. According to Ibon Foundation, the January to April 2009 government deficit of P111.8 billion is more than four times the P25.8 billion deficit during the same period last year. Adding the P11.4 billion deficit in May, the five-month budget deficit of P123.2 billion is already 61.8 percent of the latest full-year target of P199.2 billion. Added to this, Ibon’s computations reveal that the 2002 first quarter deficit of P61.2 billion was equivalent to 6.8 percent of GDP, while the 2009 first quarter deficit is ominously similar at 6.9 percent of GDP. To think the growth in government consumption expenditure is a mere 3.8 percent. The increase in government expenditure during the period has not translated into more jobs nor in more economic activity.

The Arroyo government has been hoping against hope that remittances from overseas Filipinos would again save the day. However, remittances continue to slow down. The growth in remittances was a mere 2.2 percent in April, down from 3.1 percent in March and 4.9 percent in February. According to Ibon Foundation, during the first quarter of the year, remittances fell in 11 out of the 20 countries that account for 96 percent of overseas remittances. Remittance growth in the remaining four countries is already slowing down.

Data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas shows that remittances from the US shrank by 9.1 percent to $1.68 billion. During the same period last year, remittances from the US amounted to $1.84 billion, $168.3 million more than this year. Remittances from the US accounted for 48 percent of the total in 2008.

Likewise, remittances from the United Kingdom fell by 13.8 percent, Italy 23.2 percent, United Arab Emirates 6.5 percent, Hong Kong 15.9 percent, Taiwan 37.5 percent, Bahrain 11.2 percent, Kuwait 58.6 percent, Qatar 4.9 percent, South Korea 22.8 percent, and Spain 1.6 percent.

There were still slight increases in remittances from Saudi Arabia, Canada, Singapore and Australia but at slower rates than in previous years. Remittances in only five countries are still registering growth namely, Japan, Germany, Norway, Greece, and Malaysia. These 20 countries account for $3.85 billion out of the total $4.06 billion in remittances received by the Philippines during the first quarter of 2009.

The Arroyo government is taking credit for nothing. It is desperately trying to make it appear that all is well with the economy to deflect moves to oust the highly unpopular Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and to justify her continuous stay in power beyond 2010 as prime minister, if it succeeds in amending the 1987 Constitution through a constituent assembly. However, the poverty and hardships that would worsen with the downward spin of the economy would further stoke the anger of the people who are already agitated over the blatant corruption, the abhorrent extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and other human-rights violations, and the persistent attacks on the people’s rights. (Bulatlat.com)

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